tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post3276317861631680080..comments2024-02-22T13:53:00.516-05:00Comments on Elizabeth Spiegel's blog: a brief history of the futureElizabeth Vicaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04880561980096775673noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-81477269857982478802009-03-29T20:43:00.000-04:002009-03-29T20:43:00.000-04:00(I meant my above post of a moment ago in a light-...(I meant my above post of a moment ago in a light-hearted tone, which got lost in translation.)<BR/><BR/>:-)GeneMhttp://www.castlelong.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-65616062303073049162009-03-29T20:41:00.000-04:002009-03-29T20:41:00.000-04:00E.V. wrote...{It annoys me when books capitalize t...E.V. wrote...<BR/>{It annoys me when books capitalize the chess pieces. In what sense are they proper nouns?}<BR/><BR/>...And E.V. wrote...<BR/>{... what difference does that difference make if it's white's turn?}<BR/><BR/>Lizzy, if you uppercase White when it is used to name an actual or virtual player (rather than as an adjective), then maybe the world would be willing to lowercase the piece names (as they should anyway).<BR/><BR/>On an tangent, there are no such things as white and black squares on a chessboard, only light and dark squares.<BR/>Further the squares have no color, instead they have-or-lack "shading"; IMHO.<BR/><BR/><BR/>GeneM<BR/>CastleLong.com , for FRC-chess960GeneMhttp://www.castlelong.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-37581230355423705972009-03-29T19:15:00.000-04:002009-03-29T19:15:00.000-04:00I prefer it when people capitalize the names of ch...I prefer it when people capitalize the names of chess pieces. I abhor it when people capitalize "Echange," meaning the difference in value between Rook and minor piece.<BR/><BR/>I grew up on descriptive notation. I learned the P-K4 meant "Pawn to King 4." On my score sheet I write Bb5, meaning "Bishop to b5." <BR/><BR/>Be annoyed if you wish. I've got a reason for what I do.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01424698302303608681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-11962574144508928212009-03-19T03:11:00.000-04:002009-03-19T03:11:00.000-04:00In response to Globular's post viz. quantum comput...In response to Globular's post viz. quantum computing and chess. A few years ago, a paper by quantum computing pioneer Lov Grover implied that chess could be effectively solved using a quantum computer. This result has now been withdrawn. See the article, <I><A HREF="http://www.qubit.org/people/david/Articles/Frontiers.html" REL="nofollow">David Deutsch’s Many Worlds</A></I>, and the correction at the bottom of the page:<BR/><BR/>"...there is no special reason to expect better quantum chess algorithms to exist."<BR/><BR/>Sorry!ttchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511359473230848356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-22077904099056294392009-03-16T11:04:00.000-04:002009-03-16T11:04:00.000-04:00I think that declining birth rates in Japan, Europ...I think that declining birth rates in Japan, Europe, and America have a lot to do with the advent of both adults in the family working. As the traditional middle class of working father and stay at home mother disappears, the women are too busy trying to earn a living and have a meaningful career to take time out to have children and care for them. I am not making a value judgement here, just pointing out that today's middle class family primarily consists of two working adults out of necessity.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-77119195394835571902009-03-16T02:29:00.000-04:002009-03-16T02:29:00.000-04:00Another idea I had: It annoys me when books capita...<I>Another idea I had: It annoys me when books capitalize the chess pieces. In what sense are they proper nouns?</I><BR/><BR/>Probably in the sense that at one time chess was the game of actual Kings and Queens. You would have probably found yourself in hot water if you referred to them as "king" and "queen". Same for Bishops and Knights, though I suppose Rooks and Pawns got a free ride.<BR/><BR/>I prefer lower case because I find all the capitalization makes the sentences harder to read. Plus the monarchs these days are pretty tame.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-59052404950074665642009-03-16T02:17:00.000-04:002009-03-16T02:17:00.000-04:00anjiaoshi: You make some good points ...I'm not a ...anjiaoshi: You make some good points ...<BR/><BR/>I'm not a woman. I've already said a little more than I am comfortable saying on that subject.<BR/><BR/>Speaking more abstractly, when a whole population has a high birth rate, it's time to stop thinking that families would be "better off" with fewer children and start asking why they have so many. I didn't make up the assertion about infant mortality driving the birth rate. This was the explanation I learned in school, based on WHO data. If that theory has been revised in the meantime, sorry I missed it.<BR/><BR/>I could be wrong about the birth control causation thing, but I doubt it. Correlation is not causation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-91886746331774899072009-03-14T16:15:00.000-04:002009-03-14T16:15:00.000-04:00"Family planning and birth control are the result ..."Family planning and birth control are the result of wanting fewer children, not causal." Er, no. The causation runs in the opposite direction. Wherever and whenever birth control is made widely available, birth rates drop. And while you're right that birth rates also drop in response to more numerous economic choices for women, higher education <I>gives</I> them those choices, which is why you also see birth rates drop wherever and whenever female literacy increases.<BR/><BR/>Women everywhere already know that the more control they have over their reproduction, the more control they have over their economic lives. It's not as though family planning is unavailable in certain countries just because the wimmenfolk there haven't realized yet that they'd be better off with fewer than a dozen kids.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-27266389749440136452009-03-14T03:16:00.000-04:002009-03-14T03:16:00.000-04:00Sorry, can't let that last post slide.Pretty sure ...Sorry, can't let that last post slide.<BR/><BR/>Pretty sure high birth rates are driven by high infant mortality. Family planning and birth control are the result of wanting fewer children, not causal. And what women need is not to be "highly educated" but to have economic choices and control of their own bodies.<BR/><BR/>Probably the mystery referred to is confined to certain industrialized countries, say Japan and Germany, compared to other industrialized countries ... but I haven't read the book.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-40292454778865956492009-03-13T20:52:00.000-04:002009-03-13T20:52:00.000-04:00"Will global birth rates in some countries recover..."Will global birth rates in some countries recover as mysteriously as they declined?"<BR/><BR/>This is the first time I've seen this referred to as mysterious! In industrial countries with highly educated populations where birth control and family planning are widespread, birth rates are down. In countries where these things are not as widespread, birth rates are much higher. If only there were a pattern here...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-38168554641224893462009-03-11T09:02:00.000-04:002009-03-11T09:02:00.000-04:00Quantum computing is on it's way. When it becomes ...Quantum computing is on it's way. When it becomes usable, all other technical advances with computers will be TINY in comparison.<BR/><BR/>For instance, all current forms of encryption used everywhere on the internet will be crackable in seconds, making internet commerce untenable. The good news is that many problems in science and medicine will also be solved, e.g. genetic research, protein synthesis, etc.<BR/><BR/>Germain to most of us here, imagine a machine that can evaluate millions of chess positions *at the same time* instead of one by one, and you can see how Rybka will end up looking like a five year old with a 250 rating.<BR/><BR/>It's hard to imagine, but we are still in the stone age when it comes to technology.<BR/><BR/>-MattAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-42367125246214192012009-03-10T14:26:00.000-04:002009-03-10T14:26:00.000-04:00Considering the greedy business interests & br...Considering the greedy business interests & brain dead politicians for hire involved with the so called health care industry nowadays, Robert, that's an insult to the medical professionals of the Dark Ages. To be fair, some things don't respond well to economies of scale & Moore's law; for example, you can't rush a compost pile (unless you use a lot of BS).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-79335923829660355292009-03-09T20:39:00.000-04:002009-03-09T20:39:00.000-04:00IMHO while we have made leaps and bounds in comput...IMHO while we have made leaps and bounds in computers and related technologies....where we lack in advancement is medical knowledge. We are almost at a place where "The Jetsons", technology-wise, is here. However the medical breakthroughs on "Star Trek" where light and vibrations technique are the method of cure seem far away. It is there that we are in the dark ages.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-52060789959580092032009-03-09T19:22:00.000-04:002009-03-09T19:22:00.000-04:00The speed of change is really just tremendous, and...<I>The speed of change is really just tremendous, and maybe the speed is on a permanently increasing course, so that the economic crisis will progressively degenerate and lead to massive unemployment, rioting, martial law, a breakdown in government, and in 2 or 3 years warlords will rule armed camps of people?</I><BR/><BR/>Um, that is not change, just more of the same. Change would be if we *didn't* have all of those things.<BR/><BR/>RE the 21 questions, I don't see how history can help predict sunken ships in a strait, just to pick one example. ... When does the contest end? I may still be around in 20 years but probably not in 50.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-39852613677490496582009-03-09T15:30:00.000-04:002009-03-09T15:30:00.000-04:00" He also realizes that he can summon certain natu..." He also realizes that he can summon certain natural forces to his service."<BR/><BR/>Explain. Troll does not get.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-86647841866472212552009-03-09T10:12:00.000-04:002009-03-09T10:12:00.000-04:00Mark my words, a new Dark Ages is coming! But the...Mark my words, a new Dark Ages is coming! But then, I'm a swordsmith, and I could use the extra business.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-72820534928696580172009-03-09T09:55:00.000-04:002009-03-09T09:55:00.000-04:00The book ATH2044 refers to is "Guns, Germs, and St...The book ATH2044 refers to is "Guns, Germs, and Steel" by UCLA professor Jared Diamond, and it is indeed a marvelous work. I just happen to be listening to James Gleick reading his 1999 book "Faster: The Acceleration of Just About Everything," still-fascinating if now slightly dated. I recommend it to anyone interested in trend extrapolation.<BR/><BR/>I'd just like to thank whoever posted the pseudo-Proust and pseudo-Pascal citations in an earlier blog. There are only a couple of us locally who appreciate both the literary and chess references, but we found those hysterical!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-85194400791303041342009-03-08T05:57:00.000-04:002009-03-08T05:57:00.000-04:00Here's a few (more) things to consider if you dare...Here's a few (more) things to consider if you dare:<BR/>a.) Will Rogers once said "It's difficult to predict, especially the future." <BR/>b.) Most trends are self limiting, but usually in unintended/unexpected ways. (I said that.)<BR/>c.) <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law" REL="nofollow">Mooer's Law</A> only applies to a few things & even Gordon Moore himself stated that, "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens". <BR/>d.) I'm inherently skeptical of claims like "...the possibility that the rate of change of life was <I>permanently</I> increasing..." just based on my definition of permanently.<BR/>e.) I'm immensely grateful for this blog, otherwise I'd be addicted to chess, & you know what that can lead to.<BR/>f.) Chess pieces would be proper nouns in the sense that "Center", "Gaolie" & "Defenseman" in a hockey game between the two opposing coaches would be, & since they aren't, I guess that makes one more thing that I'd have to be annoyed about too except that the chess pieces are usually abbreviated by capitals in both algebraic & descriptive notation, so for me it's OK to capitalize them even when you're not on a first letter basis with them, so I'm not usually annoyed by this.<BR/>g.) I already have some reasonably plausible answers (I haven't read Attali's book, so I don't know if they'd be "correct" or not.) to about half the 21 questions, but I'm going to save them for another day because it's 4:27 AM & I still have to set the clocks ahead, so it's really 5:27 AM & I just had some coffee, which means I'll end up writing a book & it's not even my blog.<BR/>h.) There's a book called "Germs, Guns & (something else)" that has a similar feel to it. The author (who was on <A HREF="http://www.booknotes.org/home/index.asp" REL="nofollow">C-SPAN Booknotes</A> about a year ago) discusses historic megatrends & makes some reasonable extrapolations from where we are to where we might be headed.<BR/>i.) Lately I've been spending more time developing the finer positional points of my game so my blitz play has gone to hell in a handbasket. I don't know if that's a good thing or not.<BR/>j.) I'm gonna shut up for now & go set some clocks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8556305125957341024.post-23490972509395379102009-03-07T23:25:00.000-05:002009-03-07T23:25:00.000-05:00Predictions of the future are always tricky - afte...Predictions of the future are always tricky - after WWI, many thought the "The Great War" would be the last one ever or at least a very long time. Only 20 years later, WWII was started. <BR/><BR/>The one trend through recorded history which I hope persists is that in general (with lots of exceptions) the importance of individual people has risen. Consider that no one really cared what the "man on the street" or "the peasant in the village" thought 200, 500 or 1000 years ago. Today even in many authoritarian cultures, there is some minimal level of sensitivity to this notion. The other trend is that rigidity in thought and society has usually led to either a pushback with development of greater individual freedom or if that doesn't occur stagnation. The most rigidity compliant societies end up being trapped in time. <BR/><BR/>Chess players may be an interesting example. Consider that strong players habitually criticize and question their own play - even during a game, the stronger players don't "wish" or "hope" that their moves or positions are good, they challenge and calculate and propose alternatives. I think the technical term is "falsification" - that is strong players don't accept as a "true" statement "my position is good" or "my move is a good one" but rather strive to prove or challenge that. So their minds in the game at least reject the notion that "everything is fine" and instead seek to question and challenge. One can see that this attitude when taken away from the chessboard could lead to a similar questioning of the status quo in other aspects of life and society. <BR/><BR/>Seems like an interesting book!<BR/><BR/>treetownAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com