Wednesday, August 29, 2007

The Day I've Been Waiting For, A Hypothetical and a Former World Champion

Oh, how thrilling: the U. S. Chess League.
I know I can't compete with the yin / yang of USCL prognosticators, Ron Young and Arun Sharma (the fantastical non sequiturs, the near-manic thoroughness), but I'm interested not in what might happen, but what could happen....
I’m going after the hypothetical angle.
Here's this week's "What if?":
IF THE TENNESSEE TEMPO HAD KASPAROV ON BOARD ONE, WOULD THEY MAKE THE PLAYOFFS?

This actually grew out of a conversation with USCL Commissioner Greg Shahade. I asked him what his ultimate goal for the league was. He shrugged and said "More sponsorships for the teams?" or maybe he said "ESPN." I forget which, and obviously that means I wasn't really listening, but the important part is MY RESPONSE, which was "What about getting Kasparov to play?" and obviously, if Kasparov would play, it would be for Tennessee. Which brings us to the question at hand, so let's take a look:

First of all, to make the play-offs you need to come in the top half of your division, since 3 out of 6 teams will qualify. Let's say you need a minimum of 5.5 match points out of ten.

Naturally, Kasparov will want to play every game. Amazingly for Tennessee they can have boards 1, 2, and 4 simply slide down to 2, 3, and 4, so the best line up seems to be:
1. Kasparov (unknown USCF rating, but counts as 2580)
2. Burnett 2407
3. Andrews 2337
4. Bick 2266
Of course, Hot Toddie has to be on the team, and if you haven't read his hilarious post about why New Orleans native John Bick is key, you definitely should:
http://tennesseetempo.blogspot.com/2007/08/welcome-our-new-players.html

The current Tennessee schedule is:
1. Dallas Destiny
2. New Jersey Knockouts
3. Seattle Sluggers
4. Miami Sharks
5. San Francisco Mechanics
6. Baltimore Kingfishers
7. Carolina Cobras
8. Miami Sharks
9. Dallas Destiny
10. Carolina Cobras

I will take Arun's (first listed) recommendation about the best possible teams. Notice that this deprives other teams of using match strategy to improve their chances: given Kasparov’s overwhelming strength, teams should definitely choose a lower rated board one (since he’s probably losing anyway) in order to stack boards 2-4. But, in order to be absolutely, completely, entirely, irreproachably fair, I’m not even allowing this! A second Daniel! I’m basing my predictions primarily on current rating, but I consider other relevant factors like color, recent results, youth, alcohol consumption, and activity.

MATCH 1
Dallas
1st: Kuljasevic 2491
2nd: Bartholomew 2488
3rd: Stopa 2433
4th: Guadalupe 2218

I'm assuming Kasparov can win on board one. Bartholomew outrates Burnett by 81 points and has white, so he gets the nod on board two. Stopa has almost a 100 point advantage, so despite having black, I'm picking him also on 3. Guadalupe has white, but he's down 48 points =>draw.

Dallas 2.5- Tennessee 1.5

MATCH 2
New Jersey
1st Benjamin 2651
2nd: Ippolito 2433
3rd: Molner 2335
4th: Shen 2250

OK, so Kasparov has white, lucky guy, and despite his relative inactivity lately, Benjamin hasn't been playing a lot either so I'm giving Gary this one. Boards three and four are very similarly rated, so let's split the difference and call it 1-1 there. The big question is Ippolito-Burnett. Just on rating (Dean has a 26 point advantage) I would normally call this a draw, but Dean-o has white and he's coming off a nice result at the New England Masters, so I think he has the edge.
Tennessee 2- New Jersey 2


MATCH 3
Seattle
1st: Serper 2572
2nd: Orlov 2574
3rd: Milat 2354
4th: Sinanan 2191

Again, Kasparov is black, but generously I'm believing in the man anyway. Orlov outrated Burnett by 167 points and has white, so 1-0 there. (Weirdly, he outrates Serper also, but let's gloss over that one) Milat is 17 points above Toddie, but is black, so DRAW. Sinanan is outrated by 75; he's white; close call. But I'll be generous and call this for TN.

Tennessee 2.5 - Seattle 1.5

MATCH 4
Miami
1st Becerra 2634
2nd Lugo 2430
3rd: Martinez 2462
4th: Mederos 2062

It's again lucky for Kasparov that he's white against Becerra, because honestly, is he going to win EVERY GAME? Someone in the country can draw him with white, surely?! It's a good thing they aren't playing New York, that's all I can say. Lugo outrates Burnett by 23 points and is white; it's close, but I gave TN the benefit of the doubt last time, so I'm calling this one 1-0. Marcel is more than 125 points above Toddie. I'm not happy about it, Toddie being a close friend and all, but reality calls for the truth: 0-1 (Miami). Happily, this leaves a weaker 4th board for the Florida team, leaving the overall match a push:

Tenn. 2: Miami 2


MATCH 5
San Fran
1st: Wolff 2623
2nd Bhat 2465
3rd: Pruess 2448
4th: Naroditsky 2170

Again, Mr. K takes the point, owing mostly to Patrick's long hiatus from the game. Bhat and Pruess both wipe their opponents up, out-rating them by 58 and 111 points respectively. Now, Southerners are going to protest here, but I'm taking Naroditsky over Bick because
1) he's white,
2) he's a genius kid and
3) he doesn't have a tattoo of an alcohol manufacturer on his shoulder (Sadly, this photograph has been removed at the subject's request).
Compelling arguments, no?

Tennessee 1 – San Fran 3

MATCH 6
Baltimore
1st. Erenburg 2605
2nd. Lopez 2468
3rd: Kaufman 2406
4th: Battsetseg 2234

Ok, the former world champion wins on board one. Just barely. Lopez outrates Burnett by 61, so he takes board 2. Kaufman is white and has a 59 point edge over Toddie, so 1-0 Baltimore again. Battsetseg and Bick are 32 points away from each other; definitely a tough call, but I leaned against Tennessee and mocked Bick’s body art last time, so I owe them: 1-0 for the Bickster.

Baltimore 2: Tennessee 2

MATCH 7
Carolina
1st: Milman 2531
2nd: Schroer 2447
3rd: Chumachenko 2447
4th: Bapat 2126

Milman goes down, no question. Schroer is black against Burnett, so even though he’s 40 points higher, I’m calling this one a tie. Chuma outrates Toddie by 110 points and is white, so no-brainer here, 1-0. Now I would make an argument for Bapat as a drawing master, based on having sat next to him 1000 times and watching him behave like a rock with his Caro-kann, but I'm going to assume K is prepping his teammmates carefully and gives John-John and explosive novelty.

Tennessee 2.5 - Carolina 1.5

MATCH 8
Miami
1st Becerra 2634
2nd Lugo 2430
3rd: Martinez 2462
4th: Mederos 2062

Now here we go. Fans may scream bloody murder, but I’m going out on a limb and saying wily Becerra holds the Big K to a draw with white. All other games are as above, but this time, Miami takes the cake and eats it.

Miami 2.5- Tennessee 1.5


MATCH 9
Dallas
1st: Kuljasevic 2491
2nd: Bartholomew 2488
3rd: Stopa 2433
4th: Guadalupe 2218

They played before, and I liked Dallas then, but mostly because they had white on the crucial 4th board. Not so here, and so I’m calling it a tie.

Dallas 2 – Tennessee 2.

MATCH 10
Carolina
1st: Milman 2531
2nd: Schroer 2449
3rd: Chumachenko 2447
4th: Bapat 2126

And this one is the reverse. Clearly Tennessee takes 1 and Dallas gets the nod on three, but between Schroer with white and 40 extra points and super solid Bapat-the-drawing-master who also has white, Carolina gets at least a point between them.

Tennessee 2 – Carolina 2

Results? Only 4.5/10. A sad day in Southern history—no play-offs for the Tempo.
Next week they get Ivanchuk and Svidler: CAN THEY TAKE THE CHAMPIONSHIP ? We’ll look at match-ups against New York and San Fran….

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is the funniest thing I've ever seen in my life!

abby said...

hilarious, yet also profound...dude, this rules!

Anonymous said...

Very nice idea. I especially like how Seattle goes down. However, there is a minor problem that with all the $ in New york they may be able to buy/trade for Kaspy.

Pascal said...

Some funny stuff. Too bad Tennessee is not playing New York, I would have liked to get my shot (though it would probably be Hikaru's anyway) at the man. I generally agree with your predictions, despite a slight tendency to overrate ratings, forgetting other things like the intimidation worth of tattoos and the fact that I doubt anybody in Seattle would hear Kasparov whisper a move or two.

Tennessee Tempo said...

Now I have the kind of sense of humor that makes it nearly impossible for me to ever be very serious...like Liz, in fact! And I know that we may be the bad news bears of the league from last year, but come on...did I not win a single game all year again, Elizabeth? Is this what you think of my future and my prospects? You've got me performing like a 80 year old NFL player once again? For Christ's Sake, I have already equaled my score from last year! Thanks a lot to league commish Greg Shahde for pointing that out to me. If we had Kasparov, we would be unstoppable. Although Peter and John Darby would be crushed that there USCL records of "Furthest Traveled" would be decimated by the Russky. This whole report is rubish. Good job, Lizzie!